When Are Layoffs Most Likely? A Month-by-Month Breakdown

Trying to decide how at risk your job is right now? Read on

Before setting out to do my own digging, I would have told you that January had to be the most likely month for layoffs.

Why? Because I was a four-year survivor of January layoffs at my previous company before eventually making it out, just ahead of a fifth (hold your applause, please).

But my reality every year for that stretch was that I had to gear up for January. When the consultants started pouring in to talk about our India office, or when our company was sold to a new PE firm midyear, I knew all of these changes would come home to roost in January.

What made sense for that company, though, might not hold for every company. Our fiscal year followed the standard calendar year, so clearing out costs before heading into a new year with new goals made sense.

What determines when layoffs will happen across corporate America? That is a different story. And the many factors that play into when a company decides to do layoffs can give us a somewhat predictable calendar of when layoffs are most likely to happen in general across the country.

Use this info to find a rhythm in your job search, steady your finances, and set realistic expectations for any job applications you put out. (Or, if you are still employed, calm the nerves or raise the alarm bells.)

The short answer: the first quarter of the year (January through March) is consistently the heaviest stretch for job cuts, with January leading the pack. Summer months tend to be quieter, and December is almost always the calmest month of the year. That pattern has held, with a few dramatic exceptions, across the last five-plus years.

The month-by-month breakdown below is built mainly from Challenger, Gray & Christmas, the outplacement firm that has tracked announced U.S. job cuts since the 1990s, along with the reasons behind the seasonal swings.

A quick note on the numbers

The figures here come mostly from Challenger’s monthly job-cut reports, which count layoffs that employers announce (not every separation that actually happens). Announcements can be lumpy, because a single large employer (think a UPS or an Amazon) can move an entire month’s total on its own. Government data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (the JOLTS series) measures actual separations and is smoother, but it tells a similar seasonal story. Treat the monthly numbers below as a guide to the pattern rather than a precise census.

The month-by-month picture

Month	Seasonal tendency	Representative announced U.S. job cuts
January	Peak. The single highest month in most years.	108,435 (Jan 2026), the highest January since 2009
February	Stays elevated, part of the heavy Q1 run.	172,017 (Feb 2025); 84,638 (Feb 2024)
March	Often elevated, closes a heavy first quarter.	275,240 (Mar 2025), lifted by federal cuts
April	Steps down in normal years.	671,129 (Apr 2020), the all-time monthly record (pandemic)
May	Middle of the pack.	Roughly 93,800 (May 2025)
June	Cooling into summer.	47,999 (Jun 2025)
July	Historically among the lowest.	25,885 (Jul 2024), a recent low point
August	Typically quiet.	Generally one of the softer months
September	Picks back up (fiscal year-ends).	Start of the autumn wave
October	Common autumn spike.	153,074 (Oct 2025); 55,597 (Oct 2024)
November	Elevated but easing.	71,321 (Nov 2025); 14,875 (Nov 2021, record low)
December	Reliably the calmest month.	35,553 (Dec 2025); 34,817 (Dec 2023)

Monthly averages at a glance

Averaging three complete, recent years brings the seasonal shape into sharper focus:

About this chart: these bars average three complete, recent years (2023, 2024, and 2025). We left out 2020 through 2022 on purpose, since the pandemic crash and the unusually quiet recovery that followed would distort a typical-year picture. Notice that February and March sit on top here, largely because of the extraordinary federal-workforce cuts announced in early 2025. Remove that one-off wave, and January leads the way, with the first quarter still the heaviest stretch overall. July and December stay the clear low points no matter how you slice the data.

The first quarter is the danger zone

January is the most reliable spike on the calendar. In January 2026, U.S. employers announced 108,435 cuts, the highest total for the month since 2009. Even in calmer years, January routinely lands near the top. February and March often stay elevated too (February 2025 saw 172,017 announced cuts, and March 2025 reached 275,240, a figure swollen that year by large federal-workforce reductions). Put simply, if you cleared Q1 with your job intact, you passed through the statistically riskiest window.

Spring cools things down

April and May usually step down from the Q1 peak and settle into the middle of the pack. The glaring exception was April 2020, when pandemic shutdowns drove a record 671,129 announced cuts in a single month, still the highest figure in the data. Outside of a genuine shock like that, spring tends to be a moderate season.

Summer is the quiet stretch

June, July, and August have historically been the softest months for layoffs. July 2024, for example, recorded just 25,885 announced cuts, one of the lowest totals in recent memory. Business slows over the summer, decision-makers take vacations, and fewer board meetings mean fewer big restructuring calls. One caveat: this summer lull is not guaranteed. In July 2025, cuts jumped roughly 140% from the year before as companies restructured around artificial intelligence, a reminder that a strong enough trend can override the usual calendar.

Autumn brings a second wave

September and October often see layoffs climb again. Many companies (and the federal government) run fiscal years that end in September, so budget resets and end-of-year cost targets land in the fall. October 2025 stands out, with 153,074 announced cuts. This autumn bump tends to be the year’s second-heaviest stretch after Q1.

The year winds down

November usually stays elevated but begins easing, while December is almost always the calmest month on the calendar. December 2025 saw 35,553 cuts, and December 2023 came in even lower at 34,817. (November 2021 holds the record low for any single month at 14,875, during the tight, worker-short labor market of the post-pandemic recovery.) Companies generally avoid cutting staff during the holidays, both for morale and for optics, and they often hold announcements until the new year, which is a big reason January then spikes.

Layoffs ebb and flow on the calendar, but being aware of trends can help assuage fears you may have on impending layoffs.

Five years of context

Zoom out, and the annual totals tell their own story even as the monthly rhythm stayed broadly consistent:

•    2020 was dominated by the pandemic, with the April record and a brutal spring.

•    2021 was unusually quiet as the economy reopened and employers scrambled to hire (that November record low says it all).

•    2022 started slow, then tech-sector layoffs began building late in the year.

•    2023 and 2024 were heavy years, driven largely by technology-sector cuts and broad cost-cutting.

•    2025 ranked among the busiest years on record, pushed up by federal-workforce reductions early in the year and AI-related restructuring throughout.

Through all of that, the January-heavy, December-light shape held up.

Why some months see more layoffs

Several forces stack up to create the seasonal pattern:

•    Budget cycles. Most companies run on a calendar-year budget. Cost-cutting decisions get finalized in the fourth quarter and then executed in January, when the new budget takes effect. This is the single biggest driver of the Q1 spike.

•    Year-end reviews. Performance reviews, reorganizations, and strategic resets tend to conclude at year-end, with the actual cuts landing right after.

•    Earnings calendars. Fourth-quarter earnings reports arrive in January and February. Disappointing results (or pressure to show discipline to investors) can trigger announcements.

•    Post-holiday retail. Retailers add seasonal staff for the holidays and release them in January, which adds to the early-year total.

•    Fiscal year-ends. For firms and agencies whose fiscal year ends in September, autumn is their version of January, which helps explain the fall wave.

•    Holiday avoidance. Employers are reluctant to lay people off in December, so they wait, which flattens December and feeds January.

•    Summer slowdown. Fewer meetings, more vacations, and a general operational lull keep summer quieter.

One caveat matters most: macroeconomic shocks override the calendar. A pandemic, a wave of federal cuts, a sudden pivot to AI, or a tariff shock can send any month soaring regardless of the season. Seasonality tells you the baseline odds, not the guarantee.

What this means if you have been laid off

•    If it happened in Q1, you are in a crowded field, since more people are searching at once and competition can be stiffer. Lean hard on networking and move quickly.

•    If you sense your role is at risk heading into year-end, the historical odds say the decision may already be made and simply waiting for January. Building your emergency fund and refreshing your resume in Q4 is smart insurance.

•    The summer slowdown in layoffs can also mean a slower hiring season in some industries, so pace your finances accordingly.

•    Remember that this is about probability, not fate. Plenty of people are laid off in quiet months, and plenty keep their jobs straight through January.

Key Dates to Remember

•    January is the riskiest month, and Q1 (January through March) is the heaviest quarter, year in and year out.

•    Summer (June through August) is usually the quietest stretch, and December is reliably the calmest single month.

•    A secondary wave often arrives in September and October, tied to fiscal-year-ends.

•    Big economic shocks can override the seasonal pattern entirely, so treat the calendar as a baseline, not a promise.

Data source: Challenger, Gray & Christmas monthly job-cut reports (2020 to 2026), with seasonal context from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics JOLTS data. Announced figures reflect planned cuts, not final separation counts.

About the author

Corporate Kate has spent nearly 15 years inside corporate tech, managing large teams and making the hiring decisions most job seekers never get to see. She holds a bachelor’s degree in Finance and writes about layoffs, careers, and money.